A trade war with China would delay an economic downturn even earlier

Solstice March 29, the annual boao Asia BBS held in boao, hainan. The theme of this year's annual conference is "common destiny, common action and common development". Finance website full scene direct attack report.Zhu min, President of the national institute of finance at tsinghua university, said at the March 29 morning "debt 'degree' BBS that if the sino-us trade negotiations are delayed or take more time, it will have an impact on the world economy and cause our recession to come earlier.The following is the transcript:I think the United States will be in this recession in 2020, 2030, and the world will be in this recession.The really challenging impact on the question of u.s.-china trade is whether or not the United States is going to impose a 25 percent tariff, when it's going to start, and that's going to have a huge impact on the American economy, on the Chinese economy, China's economy is going to slow down, but it's also going to have a huge impact on the American economy. Because we're talking about $200 billion of goods. Because a lot of us imports over 50% of its products are intermediate products, that is, a lot of us industries are intermediate products missing, because 125 billion of goods are imported from China. So the U.S. -china trade negotiations are very important.Second, the u.s.-china trade negotiations have a huge impact on global trade. You can see that last year's growth in trade was lower than our global GDP growth, which has been very rare in the last 20 or 30 years. This year we see trade growth still below average GDP growth, so that's not good news.The impact of trade on global investment is huge. The total amount of FDI in the world dropped from 1.48 trillion yuan in 2017 to 1.2 trillion yuan last year, so it was down by 18%. No one knows where to invest. If you impose a 25% tariff, for example, investors don't know where to invest, so that's a big impact.Finally, there is the issue of confidence that trade frictions can engender. If we look at financial markets, confidence in financial markets is closely linked to the outcome of trade negotiations. A delay or even more time in our trade negotiations with the United States would indeed have an impact on the world economy, causing our recession to come earlier.

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